In polls on October 30 are: 32 seats, 11 states and 2 beautiful national stories

In polls on October 30 are: 32 seats, 11 states and 2 beautiful national stories (Pic Credit: TheQuint.com)

In polls on October 30 are: 32 seats, 11 states and 2 beautiful national stories (Pic Credit: TheQuint.com)

Elections will be held on Saturday, October 30 in 29 Assembly seats and in three Lok Sabha constituencies in 11 states and union territories.

Surveys alone often do not reflect a significant national trend. Quint had previously released data showing that ruling parties at the state level have an advantage in at least some states.

However, the polls will send a national signal if they come at a politically critical time.In at least four states and UTs, Congress competes directly with a current or former ally.


Bihar
In Bihar, the party and its ally Rashtriya Janata Dal waged an aggressive battle of words ahead of by-elections in two parliamentary seats in Tarapur and Kusheshwar Asthan.

Both election seats were held by the ruling United party Janata Dal, so Congress and the RJD have little to lose in the polls. Congress is therefore trying to regain its base among high caste voters and Dalits. On the other hand, the RJD is trying to get a feel for its own strength without Congress, particularly in Kusheshwar Asthan in Darbhanga district, a seat it has not contested for over a decade.

The polls also mark Lalu Prasad's return to the election campaign, and that too could help the RJD.
 

Assam:

In Assam, Congress faces both its former ally, the AIUDF, and Raijor Dal, with whom it has sought to bond, in the elections. Among these seats, three are those where sitting MPs defected from the BJP - two from Congress (Thowra and Mariani) and one from AIUDF (Bhabanipur).

By abandoning the three defectors, the BJP would seek to extend its majority in the state.

Dadra and Nagar Haveli:

One of the less-discussed polls is taking place at the headquarters of Dadra and Nagar Haveli Lok Sabha, necessitated by the death of independent MP Mohan Delkar, who committed suicide earlier this year. Prior to his death, Delkar filed a number of charges against the BJP, including Lakshadweep Lieutenant Governor Praful Khoda Patel, who was previously a UT administrator.

Traditionally, the seat was in direct competition between Congress and the BJP until Delkar, a former congressman, won as an independent candidate in 2019.

In the by-election, his wife will run for Shiv Sena, making it another congressional contest with an ally.

Congress held two of the three Meghalaya Assembly seats in Mawryngkneng and Rajabala, while Mawphlang was held by an independent. The party hopes to retain its seats, failing which it threatens to amplify the story of the slowdown in the Northeast that the TMC is trying to enforce. The party recently succeeded in preventing the transfer of former CM Mukul Sangma to the TMC.

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress can hope to win all four seats in the ballot and revive its national plans. Read a full research report
 

Dependency of the BJP on defectors:

The BJP naturally hopes to improve its record in Assam thanks to the defectors from Congress in Thowra and Mariani and the AIUDF defector Phanidhar Talukdar in Bhabanipur. It can also count on its UPPL allies in Gossaigaon and Tamulpur.

Another headquarters where the BJP relies on a defector to support its growth is Huzurabad in Telangana. The poll comes after Eatala Rajender, head of Telangana Rashtra Samithi, defected from the BJP.

The poll comes at a time when the ruling TRS is facing the challenge of an aggressive BJP and resurgent Congress.

The study will be a test of the TRS's resilience and the strength of its two challengers.

The BJP also expects the second ballot to be moved to the Deglur Assembly Center in the Nanded district of Maharashtra. He gave a ticket to a former member of Shiv Sena. The vote will take place after the death of Congressman Raosaheb Antapurkar. The ruling MVA assigned the seat to the Congress, in which the son of the late MP was represented.
 

Bipolar Games:

Given the bipolar battle between the BJP and Congress in these states, ten seats in three states are being considered. These include three assemblies (Arki, Jubbal and Fatehpur) and a seat of Lok Sabha (Mandi) in Himachal Pradesh, three assemblies (Prithvipur, Raigaon and Jobat), a seat of Lok Sabha in Madhya Pradesh (Khandwa) and two assembly seats (Vallabh Nagar and Dhariawad) in Rajasthan.

Mandi's seat in Himachal Pradesh was released after the suicide of BJP MP Ram Swaroop.

The HP and Madhya Pradesh elections are seen as a referendum on the governments of the BJP countries while the same is seen in the context of the Congress government in the elections in Rajasthan. In Vallabh Nagar, the seat of Udaipur district, the rivalry between the factions within the BJP is also significant as Vasundhara Raje was seen by Gulab during the opposition as supporting Randhir Singh Bhinder, a former BJP leader currently in charge. state of Janata Sena Rajasthan. Kataria is against it. A win for Bhinder will be a blow to Raje, while a win for the official BJP candidate could be against her. A victory in Congress could even be a neutral outcome for both.

Ellenabad in Haryana, though non-bipolar, is another key national ballot that fell vacant after Abhay Chautala resigned from India's Lok Dal National Council in protest of agricultural laws. Chautala wants to take advantage of the farmers' protest and win big, as it would be an important step in the INLD's efforts to oust the JJP in the power struggle within the Chautala family. For its part, the BJP hopes that decent action will send the signal that peasant protests are no longer politically harmful to them.


Sources:- the quint
 

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