Up election 2022 (image Source: Firstindianews)
The tremendous victory margin of BJP in 2017, the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, further makes it very difficult to even imagine whether the results would have been something different if the opposition parties would have played it in a different way. After the declaration of the results, BJP paved its way, because it had captured more than 403 seats in the assembly.
The analysis of the Constitutional level, further shows that it has resulted in a two-way split of the anti-BJP votes thus making the outcome more lopsided. If it is clearly looked upon, the situation is very transparent as there are 140 constituencies in the state where Muslims account for over 20% of the population. These seats were at the heart of the Samajwadi Party’s success in 2012 when it came to power dislodging the Bahujan Samaj Party – they had won more than half of them. Again in 2017, the BJP along with its allies had captured a whopping 111, because of a very palpable division among the Muslim votes, in between the two regional parties, along with the addition of the Hindu consolidation.
Both the Samajwadi party along with the Bahujan Samaj Party had come together during 2019 Lok Sabha elections. To henceforth create a seeming effort which will act as the remedy of the situation, but this alliance tanked spectacularly. Keeping aside the popularity of Narendra Modi, the analysts went on to blame the defeat of the coalition’s failure to rise above its inherent social contradictions.
The scenario of the upcoming elections of 2022.
In the upcoming 2022 elections of Uttar Pradesh the two parties have taken up the decision to go solo again. Many Uttar Pradesh politics observers have believed that this time the contest will not be multi-cornered. It is the decline of the BSP’s influence over the past couple of years as per the theory. Whatever fight will be given to the BJP will be by the SP,” said Mirza Asmer Beg, a political scientist at the Aligarh Muslim University. “The BSP is disintegrating every day and the Congress barely has any presence.”
Since the last two decades, Congress has not acquired more than 30 Seats, in the whole state. Even in the last four assembly elections, Congress has once got to snare more than 10% of the total votes cast. Sushil Gautam, a Dalit activist based in Meerut, said the Bahujan Samaj Party ran the risk of even losing a section of its core Jatav Dalit voters. “There is some anger against Mayawati among Dalit youth,” said Gautam who teaches history at Meerut University. “So many of them who want the BJP to go may strategically back the SP this time.”
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